Gold · Market move

Gold surges more than 3% back above $4,000 as Democrats take Congress, the dollar softens and Treasury yields fall

By VoxTradePro Desk · Published 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC+8 · 3 min read

Spot gold reclaimed $4,000 with a 3%+ midterm rally as yields and the dollar eased. We cover the drivers, silver’s move and what to watch next.

Gold reversed October’s slide in a single session. On Wednesday 4 November, spot gold was up 3.4% at $4,059.95 an ounce by 14:04 ET, while December US gold futures settled 3.4% higher at $4,073, Reuters reported. Kitco’s afternoon print put spot near $4,065.90, up $136.50 or 3.47%. Our live feed showed about $4,078.60 early on Thursday 5 November Macau time. The metal had fallen to $3,869.85 on 30 October—the weakest since October 2025—before reclaiming the $4,000 handle.

Reuters said the gain was on track for the largest daily advance since mid-August. Live quotes stay on our gold page.

Why the midterm result mattered for bullion

Democrats took control of both the US Senate and House in the 3 November midterms. Markets read that as a higher chance of legislative gridlock and less room for new fiscal stimulus. The dollar fell to a more than one-month low, Reuters said, which makes dollar-priced bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

Treasury yields moved the same way. Kitco said the 10-year yield briefly touched about 4.89%—near a two-month low—and finished near the 4.88% area, with the two-year near 4.55%. Gold pays no coupon, so lower nominal and real yields cut the opportunity cost of holding it. That channel—not a sudden change in mine supply—did most of the work on Wednesday.

Jim Wyckoff of American Gold Exchange told Reuters that a Congress likely to deadlock on much legislation could be somewhat negative for growth and might leave the Federal Reserve more room to lean toward easier policy later. That is a medium-term story; it does not erase near-term rate risk.

Rate odds and Wednesday’s data

Higher rates still compete with gold. Traders saw about an 83% chance of a December Fed increase on CME’s FedWatch tool, according to Reuters. The Fed held its range at 3.75% to 4.00% in October.

Wednesday’s US releases were mixed. Kitco cited ADP private payrolls up 86,000 in October (above forecasts near 67,000) and the ISM services index at 54.5, still expanding but a touch softer than expected. The prices-paid component eased to 73.0 from 74.0, suggesting cost pressure remains high even if it cooled slightly. Friday’s official employment report is the next big input for December odds; see the economic calendar.

Lower crude prices also helped the inflation backdrop. Kitco put Brent near $94.62 (−8.7%) and Nymex WTI near $88.12 (−8.3%) as markets priced more chance of Iran diplomacy after the election. Soft oil can ease some inflation worry, but unresolved Gulf risks remain.

Silver outperformed

Silver moved harder than gold. Reuters put spot silver up 4.9% to $52.23; Kitco’s late print was near $52.28, up 5.25%. Our feed showed about $52.61 early Thursday. On those levels the gold/silver ratio sits near 77–78, down from the high-70s when silver was under $50—context covered in our gold-silver ratio guide.

Platinum and palladium also rose on the Reuters tape (+5.6% and +7.5% in the midday snapshot), showing the move was broad across precious metals, not gold alone.

What to watch next

$4,000 and nearby technical bands: Kitco flagged first resistance near $4,068 and support near $3,975. How traders use those levels is in support, resistance and pivot points.
US jobs report, Friday 6 November (08:30 ET / 21:30 Macau): a strong print could firm yields and the dollar again; a soft one may extend the metals bounce.
10-year yield and the dollar: another push higher in either would raise gold’s opportunity cost.
Fiscal headlines from the new Congress: spending, taxes and Treasury issuance expectations can shift the yield path.

Gold can move several percent around political and labour data. If you are new to the market, start with how to trade gold and keep size in check with risk management basics. Unit and currency converters are on our gold price tools pages.

Sources

Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.

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