Macro · Jobs report
US payrolls jump 165,000 in October, pushing December Fed hike odds near 80% as gold and bitcoin slip and Goldman trims its gold targets
October payrolls nearly tripled forecasts, lifting odds of a December Fed hike. How gold, bitcoin and the dollar reacted, and what comes next.
The US labor market surprised to the upside in October, and traders quickly moved to price a higher chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again in December. The data hit gold and bitcoin within minutes, though the moves stayed modest. Here is what the report showed, how markets reacted and which dates matter next.
What the October jobs report showed
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on 6 November 2026 that nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, compared with a Dow Jones consensus of 59,000, according to CNBC. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% from a year earlier, both above estimates.
Earlier months were also revised higher. Kitco reported that August payrolls were raised to 186,000 and September to 60,000, adding a combined 84,000 jobs to previously reported figures. Professional and business services, health care and manufacturing led the gains.
Why it matters for the Fed
The Fed raised rates in September and held its range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, BeInCrypto noted. A strong hiring print with firmer wages gives policymakers less reason to pause.
After the release, CME FedWatch showed the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the 8–9 December meeting at 76.8%, CNBC reported. Reuters put market pricing at about 80%, up from about 67% on Thursday, and said traders also pulled forward the expected timing of the next hike after December to April from June. Kitco reported that the two-year Treasury yield rose about 6 basis points to 4.53% after the data.
For readers new to the mechanism, our explainer on what a Fed rate hike means for gold and bitcoin covers why higher rates and a firmer dollar tend to weigh on assets that pay no yield.
How gold, bitcoin and the dollar reacted
| Asset | Reaction reported after the 8:30 a.m. ET release | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | Fell to about $4,032 from about $4,062, later near $4,050 | BeInCrypto |
| Bitcoin | Briefly above $76,100, then near $75,500 | BeInCrypto, Bitcoin Magazine |
| US Dollar Index | Spiked to about 102.22 from 102.07 | BeInCrypto |
| 2-year Treasury yield | Up about 6 bp to 4.53% | Kitco |
The wider crypto market was already under pressure from a technology-stock selloff earlier in the week. A KuCoin News report published on 7 November put total crypto market capitalisation down more than 3% at $2.55 trillion, with digital-asset investment products recording $511.9 million of outflows and the Fear and Greed Index at 31. Live levels are on our bitcoin and gold pages.
Goldman trims its gold forecasts
The jobs data landed a day after Goldman Sachs cut its gold price forecasts. According to Investing.com, the bank lowered its end-2026 target to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650 and its end-2027 target to $4,800 from $5,400, citing the Fed's hawkish shift and its expectation of a December hike. Goldman still expects central bank purchases of about 60 tonnes a month through 2026 and 2027, which it says drives most of the upside it projects by the end of 2027.
What to watch next
- 4 December: the November employment report, due five days before the Fed decision, according to Bitcoin Magazine.
- 8–9 December: the FOMC meeting, where markets now lean toward a quarter-point hike.
- Dollar and yields: gold and bitcoin both reacted to the same move in the dollar and short-term yields on Friday, so those remain useful gauges.
- Fund flows: continued outflows from crypto investment products would show whether larger investors stay cautious.
Rate expectations can shift quickly with each data release, and probabilities from futures markets are not forecasts of what the Fed will do. Traders who want to test how a rate-driven move affects a position can practise first in our paper trading simulator and review risk management basics.
Read next
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- Crypto Market Basics: How Digital Asset Markets DifferGuide
- How to Trade Gold: Markets, Drivers and a Practical PlanGuide
Free tools: Gold price today · Gold calculator · Silver price today · Silver calculator · Paper trading simulator
Sources
- CNBC, US economy added 165,000 jobs in October vs 59,000 Dow Jones estimate; unemployment 4.1%; hourly earnings +0.4% m/m, +3.1% y/y; CME FedWatch December hike odds 76.8%, 6 November 2026
- Kitco News, gold falls as payrolls surge; August revised to 186,000, September to 60,000; spot gold near $4,050.95; 2-year Treasury yield up about 6 bp to 4.53%, 6 November 2026
- Reuters via StreetInsider, markets priced about an 80% chance of a December hike, up from about 67% on Thursday; next hike seen in April instead of June, 6 November 2026
- BeInCrypto, gold dropped to about $4,032 from about $4,062 after the release; bitcoin briefly above $76,100 then near $75,780; DXY spiked to about 102.22, 6 November 2026
- Bitcoin Magazine, bitcoin settled near $75,500 after the report; next employment report due 4 December, 6 November 2026
- Investing.com, Goldman Sachs cuts end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 from $4,650 and end-2027 to $4,800 from $5,400; expects central bank buying of 60 tonnes a month, 5 November 2026
- KuCoin News (The Coin Republic), crypto market cap down over 3% to $2.55 trillion; digital-asset products saw $511.9 million outflows; Fear and Greed Index 31, 7 November 2026
Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.