Gold · Market move

Gold hovers near a one-year low as strong US job openings lift Treasury yields and December hike bets

By VoxTradePro Desk · Published 4 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC+8 · 3 min read

Spot gold slipped toward $3,900 on 3 November after JOLTS and factory orders beat forecasts. We explain the yield link and what to watch next.

Gold is pinned close to its lowest level in more than a year. On Tuesday 3 November, spot gold dipped as much as 1% to a session low of $3,893.31 an ounce before trading around $3,927.18 by 14:06 ET, down 0.5%, Reuters reported via Kitco. US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.7% lower at $3,940.40. Our own data feed showed spot gold at about $3,936.70 at 07:52 Macau time on Wednesday 4 November.

That keeps the metal only a short distance above last Friday's low. On 30 October, Kitco reported that gold broke below $4,000 and touched its weakest level since 6 October 2025, when it hit an intraday low of $3,884.61. Live prices are on our gold page.

Strong US data pushed yields higher

Tuesday's pressure came from the US economy rather than from geopolitics. The Labor Department's JOLTS survey showed September job openings rising to 7.523 million from an upwardly revised 7.190 million in August, Kitco reported, against forecasts near 7.15 million. It was the highest reading since May. Hires edged up to about 5.4 million and quits rose to about 3.4 million, while layoffs stayed near 1.6 million.

Factory orders also beat expectations, rising 1.8% in September against a forecast of about 1.2%, according to Kitco's afternoon report. Together, the two releases suggested labour demand and manufacturing remain firm despite high borrowing costs.

Markets read that as room for the Federal Reserve to keep tightening. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 5.8 basis points to roughly 4.951%, and the dollar firmed modestly, Kitco said. Gold pays no interest, so higher real yields and a stronger dollar raise the cost of holding it for many investors. That is the main channel through which a jobs headline reaches the gold price.

Rate-hike odds stay high

The Fed held its benchmark range at 3.75% to 4.00% last week, but two policymakers favoured an immediate 25-basis-point increase, Kitco reported. After Tuesday's data, traders priced a 79% probability of a December rate increase on CME's FedWatch tool, according to Reuters. Reuters noted that a slight pullback in those odds earlier in the session had briefly supported bullion.

Lower oil prices helped only for a while. Crude extended its slide on Iran diplomacy hopes, which eased some inflation concerns and allowed gold a short gain before sellers returned. Phillip Streible of Blue Line Futures told Reuters that a strengthening dollar and higher yields were weighing on the metal.

Silver fell harder

Silver dropped further than gold. Kitco put spot silver near $49.45, down about 2.1% on the session late on Tuesday, citing concerns about industrial demand alongside the same yield pressure. Our feed showed silver around $49.93 at 07:52 Macau time on Wednesday. On those snapshot prices the gold/silver ratio sits near 79, a level explained in our gold-silver ratio guide. See the silver page for live quotes.

Midterms add another layer

US midterm voting took place on 3 November. Reuters said polls and nonpartisan analysts favoured Democrats to win the House, with the Senate less certain. Kitco noted that a divided Congress could limit new fiscal spending, which might temper expectations for Treasury issuance and long-term yields. Whether that helps gold depends on how yields and the dollar actually react once results are clear.

What to watch next

The one-year low: the area around $3,884 to $3,893 marks the 30 October and 3 November lows. Our guide to support, resistance and pivot points explains how traders use such levels.
US jobs report, Friday 6 November (08:30 ET, 21:30 Macau time): the BLS October employment release is the next big input for December rate odds; see the economic calendar.
Treasury yields and the dollar: a move in the 10-year yield back below recent highs would ease one source of pressure.
Election results: fiscal expectations could shift as House and Senate outcomes become clear.

Gold has been swinging more than 1% in a session around data releases. If you are new to the market, start with how to trade gold, and keep position size in check with risk management basics.

Sources

Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.

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