Energy · Weekly drivers

Oil prices this week: OPEC+ holds steady, US stocks draw and Hormuz risk keeps crude near six-month highs

By VoxTradePro Desk · Published 1 Nov 2026, 12:24 UTC+8 · 3 min read

Brent and WTI ended October at six-month highs. Here are the drivers for oil this week: the OPEC+ decision, US inventories, the dollar and Gulf risk.

Oil starts November at its highest level in six months. On Friday 30 October, the expiring December Brent contract settled at $117.64 a barrel, up 2.4% on the day after touching $118, while the more actively traded January Brent contract closed at $113.43. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $104.12, Reuters reported. Over October, Brent gained 13.6% and WTI 15.2%, and both benchmarks posted a fourth straight weekly gain, according to DTN.

Four forces will decide whether that rally extends or cools this week: supply risk in the Gulf, OPEC+ policy, US inventory data and the dollar.

1. Gulf supply risk is still the main driver

The latest leg higher came after a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by explosive devices attached by a small boat, according to the UK maritime security agency UKMTO, as cited by Reuters. The strait is the main sea route for crude and fuel from the Gulf, so even a single incident raises shipping and insurance costs and makes buyers more willing to pay for prompt barrels.

Reuters also reported that traders are bracing for a possible escalation of the Iran conflict after the US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November. That puts a "risk premium" in the price, an extra amount that reflects what might happen rather than what has already been lost. Risk premiums can fade quickly if diplomacy makes progress, and they can jump if supply is actually hit. That two-way risk is why daily price swings have widened.

2. OPEC+ is standing still

Seven core OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman) agreed in principle on Sunday 1 November to keep December output targets unchanged, three sources told Reuters. The decision was widely expected.

The detail matters more than the headline. The group finished unwinding a 1.65 million barrel-per-day cut in September, and one more layer of cuts of about 2 million bpd remains in place through the end of 2026. Importantly, Reuters noted that most Gulf members are still pumping well below their targets because the conflict has disrupted exports. In practice, the limit on supply is logistics and security, not quotas, so an unchanged OPEC+ policy does little to ease a tight market. The group's next big task is a capacity review that will set 2027 baselines.

3. US inventories are drawing

The US Energy Information Administration's report on 28 October showed commercial crude stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million in the week to 23 October. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a small build. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub fell by 624,000 barrels, and crude exports rose to 4.85 million bpd. The picture was mixed for fuels: gasoline stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels while distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.5 million barrels.

Strong exports and falling crude stocks support US prices, while the gasoline build hints at softer demand at the pump. The next EIA report is due on Wednesday 4 November. Another crude draw would add to the case that the market is tight. A surprise build could take some heat out of the rally.

4. The dollar and interest rates

Oil is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for buyers using other currencies, and a stronger dollar does the opposite. The dollar eased after the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, although two officials voted for a hike and the Fed said inflation "remains elevated". That creates a feedback loop. Higher oil lifts inflation, which keeps rate hikes in play, which can support the dollar and partly offset oil's gains. Friday's US jobs report on 6 November will feed into that debate.

Market structure to watch

The gap between the expiring December Brent contract and the January contract, more than $4 at Friday's settlement, shows strong demand for prompt barrels. A market where near-dated oil costs more than later-dated oil is in backwardation, a typical sign of tight supply. Our guide to contango vs backwardation explains why this matters. Even using the January contract, Brent ended the week more than $9 above WTI, a wider gap than usual that reflects Gulf supply risk.

You can follow live prices and technical levels on our Brent crude and WTI crude pages.

Sources

Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.