Oil · Market move

Brent and WTI tumble more than 8% after Democrats sweep Congress, as traders price a higher chance of an end to the Iran war

By VoxTradePro Desk · Published 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC+8 · 3 min read

Brent settled at $94.62 and WTI at $88.12 on 4 November after an 8%+ drop tied to the US midterms. What drove it and what could reverse it.

Oil had its sharpest one-day fall in weeks after the US midterm elections. Brent crude settled down $8.98, or 8.7%, at $94.62 a barrel on Wednesday 4 November, and WTI fell $7.97, or 8.3%, to $88.12, Investing.com reported. Both benchmarks closed at their lowest level since 31 August. OilPrice.com noted that Brent had traded near $118 only the previous Friday.

The slide continued into Asian trading on Thursday 5 November. Reuters, via Business Standard, put Brent at $93.65 (down 1.03%) and WTI at $86.98 (down 1.29%) at 02:11 GMT, or 10:11 Macau time, a fourth straight day of losses. Live quotes are on our Brent and WTI pages.

Why the midterms moved oil

Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate on 3 November. Traders read that as a sign the White House may be pushed toward a deal on the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has kept a large geopolitical risk premium in crude prices for months.

Several things fed that reading, according to the reports:

• Political signals. Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that the war was the reason for the Republican losses, MarketWatch and OilPrice.com reported. President Trump told The Wall Street Journal the war had contributed to the defeat but said he did not regret it.
• No immediate strikes. Trump said the US has no immediate plans for further strikes on Iran, Investing.com reported, although Washington carried out limited strikes on Qeshm Island earlier in the week.
• Congress and funding. A Democratic Congress could constrain funding for military operations, which analysts quoted by Investing.com and Reuters said raises the odds of a negotiated settlement.
• Supply returning. Reuters said shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered close to pre-war levels, at a higher cost. JPMorgan estimated the global market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million bpd in October.

MUFG's Lloyd Chan described the move to MarketWatch as an unwind of part of the "political and geopolitical risk premium embedded in markets".

Bullish data was ignored

The selloff came despite supportive US inventory numbers. The Energy Information Administration said crude stocks fell by 865,000 barrels in the week to 30 October, a smaller draw than the 1.7 million barrels expected, while distillate stocks dropped by about 3.57 million barrels, Investing.com reported. OilPrice.com put commercial crude stocks at 409.8 million barrels, about 4% below the five-year average.

Diesel remains tight. OilPrice.com said the Energy Department will loan 300,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to four companies after diesel prices rose above $6.50 a gallon, and heating oil futures fell about 7% after the announcement.

Why some analysts expect volatility, not a straight line

Not everyone thinks lower prices will last. Mukesh Sahdev of XAnalysts told Reuters the new Congress does not take office until January, so US policy options have not changed yet, and commercial inventories in major consuming countries are near their lowest in 15 years. ANZ analysts said the reaction looked unwarranted given escalation risks. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the two sides remain far from an agreement.

Physical Gulf crude has also stayed firmer than futures. Gulf News reported Murban at $100.90 on Thursday morning, a premium of about $7 over Brent futures, a sign that physical barrels are still tighter than the paper market. For how futures curves reflect tight or loose supply, see contango vs backwardation.

What to watch

• US-Iran talks. Any confirmed progress, or a denial, has moved prices several dollars in a session this week.
• Hormuz flows and Gulf exports. Whether shipments keep recovering toward pre-war levels.
• Weekly EIA inventory data on Wednesday, especially distillates, given record diesel prices.
• US jobs report on Friday 6 November, which can move the dollar and risk assets; see the economic calendar.

Moves of 8% in a day show how quickly a risk premium can be added or removed. If you trade oil through futures, spot or CFDs, size positions with risk management basics and the position size calculator, or practise first with paper trading.

Sources

• Investing.com, Oil holds steep losses after U.S. election fuels Iran peace hopes (Brent settle $94.62, -8.7%; WTI $88.12, -8.3%; EIA crude -865,000 bbl), 5 November 2026
• OilPrice.com, Oil Crashes 9% as Trump and Vance Blame Iran War for Midterm Rout (Brent near $118 on Friday; heating oil reserve loan of 300,000 barrels; Vortexa Gulf exports), 4 November 2026
• Business Standard / Reuters, Oil prices fall for fourth day as US midterm results ease Iran war fears (Brent $93.65, WTI $86.98 at 02:11 GMT; JPMorgan surplus estimates), 5 November 2026
• MarketWatch, Oil falls amid hopes for resolution to Middle East conflict (MUFG and ANZ comments), 5 November 2026
• Gulf News, Crude oil prices drop toward $93 (Murban $100.90 at 09:59 Beijing time), 5 November 2026

Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.

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