Macro · CPI result
October CPI runs hot at 0.4% with core at 0.3%, bitcoin slips under $74,000 and traders weigh a 50bp Fed hike in December
US CPI rose 0.4% in October and core 0.3%, both above forecasts. Bitcoin, gold and stocks slipped as yields jumped. What it means for December.
October's inflation report did not give markets the cooling they hoped for. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in the month and core prices 0.3%, both a notch above forecasts. Within minutes bitcoin slipped under $74,000, gold dipped and Treasury yields jumped. The real question for traders now is no longer whether the Fed hikes in December, but by how much.
Key takeaways
- The print: headline CPI +0.4% m/m (forecast 0.3%), core +0.3% (forecast 0.2%), per the BLS and CoinDesk.
- Third hot core month: core has now risen 0.3% in August, September and October (BLS).
- Market reaction: BTC traded between $74,770 and $73,525 in the first five minutes, and about $200 million of leveraged longs were liquidated (BeInCrypto).
- Rates: the 2-year Treasury yield rose more than 15 basis points to 4.698% (CNBC).
- The swing factor: Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a core reading around 0.3% or higher should put a 50bp hike on the table (Investing.com).
What the report actually said
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the all-items index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis after 0.6% in September. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase. Food jumped 0.5% after a flat September, and energy added 0.7%. Used cars fell 1.2%, one of the few soft spots.
There is still no official annual inflation rate. The BLS never collected October 2025 prices during last year's shutdown, so it cannot publish a 12-month change for most indexes. That puts the full weight on the monthly figures, and they came in hot. We covered why this matters in our CPI preview.
Why a 0.3% core number is a big deal
A 0.3% monthly core gain, repeated, works out to well above the Fed's 2% target over a year. Before the data, CME FedWatch already showed about 98.9% odds of a 25bp December hike and only 1.1% odds of 50bp (Phemex, citing CME). Waller had said hours earlier that if core printed around 0.3%, "hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk."
The bond market moved first. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.938% and the 2-year to 4.698%, according to CNBC. A sharp jump at the short end usually means traders are pricing more near-term tightening.
How crypto and gold reacted
Higher rates raise the return on cash and bonds, which compete with assets that pay no yield, such as bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin was already weak, trading near two-month lows, and CoinDesk put it around $73,600 after the release. Spot gold fell about 0.6% to roughly $4,048 an ounce, per BeInCrypto citing OANDA. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 1.15% (CoinDesk).
What traders can watch next
- FedWatch odds for 50bp. If the probability of a half-point move climbs, rate-sensitive assets may stay under pressure.
- Friday's PPI. Producer prices are the next inflation check before the 8–9 December FOMC meeting.
- Fed speakers. Any official backing Waller's 50bp view would matter more than one data point.
- Liquidation levels. After $200 million in longs were flushed in five minutes, leverage is worth checking before adding risk.
Practical angle
Data days like this widen ranges fast. Keeping position size small, setting stops before the release and avoiding high leverage are basic risk management habits. You can test how a trade would have played out on our paper trading simulator first, with no real money at risk.
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Free tools: Gold price today · Gold calculator · Silver price today · Silver calculator · Paper trading simulator
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – October 2026 (USDL-26-1685); all items +0.4% s.a. after +0.6% in September, core +0.3% for a third month, energy +0.7%, food +0.5%, shelter +0.3%, used cars −1.2%, no 12-month rate published, 10 November 2026
- CoinDesk, U.S. CPI rose stronger than expected 0.4% in October; forecasts 0.3% headline and 0.2% core; bitcoin about $73,600; Nasdaq 100 futures −1.15%, S&P 500 −0.5%, 10 November 2026
- CNBC, 10-year Treasury yield jumps after hot CPI, Waller half-point hike comment; 10-year 4.938%, 2-year 4.698%, Brent below $90, 10 November 2026
- BeInCrypto, Hot US CPI wipes out $200 million in crypto bets; BTC range $74,770–$73,525 on Binance in five minutes after release; spot gold −0.6% to about $4,048, 10 November 2026
- Investing.com, Fed's Waller says larger hike should be considered if October CPI runs hot, 10 November 2026
- Phemex News citing CME FedWatch, 98.9% odds of a 25bp December hike and 1.1% for 50bp before the CPI release, 10 November 2026
Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.