Natural gas · Outlook

The EIA trims its winter Henry Hub forecast 16% to $2.87 just as December futures hit a six-week high, setting up a test of weather versus supply

By VoxTradePro Desk · Published 12 Nov 2026, 08:18 UTC+8 · 3 min read

EIA now sees Henry Hub averaging $2.87 this winter, 16% below its October view, while December futures touched a six-week high near $3.30.

US natural gas is sending two different messages this week. Traders have pushed December futures to their highest level in six weeks on talk of colder weather, while the US government's energy forecaster has just cut its view of where prices will average this winter. How those two views meet will shape the market for the next few months.

Futures: a short squeeze, then a pause

According to Dow Jones Market Data published by Morningstar, front-month December Henry Hub futures rose 2.42% to settle at $3.296 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Tuesday 10 November. That was a third straight gain, worth 11.84% over three sessions, and the highest settlement since 24 September. Even so, the contract was still about 56% below its 2026 high of $7.46, set on 28 January.

Energy Intelligence quoted Gelber & Associates as saying heating demand was expected to strengthen late in the week, while warmer-than-normal temperatures in the longer outlook limited the case for lasting cold. The firm also noted that heavy speculative short positions leave prices sensitive to every forecast change. We covered the start of that squeeze in our 10 November report.

The rally cooled on Wednesday. The Edge's settlement table shows December gas closing 2.46% lower at $3.215 on 11 November.

The EIA's view: more gas, lower prices

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its November Short-Term Energy Outlook on 10 November, and it leans the other way. The main points:

The Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average $2.87/MMBtu from November to March, 16% lower than in the October outlook and 36% below last winter.
End-of-November storage is now expected at 3,840 billion cubic feet (Bcf), about 67 Bcf more than forecast a month ago, because a warm start to November has cut heating demand.
The forecast assumes 13% fewer heating degree days in November than the ten-year average. Heating degree days measure how cold it is, and so how much fuel is burned for heat.
US dry gas production is forecast at 113.01 Bcf per day in 2026, rising to 117.61 Bcf/d in 2027. LNG exports are seen rising from 17.6 to 19.0 Bcf/d.
Henry Hub is projected to average $3.37 in 2026 and $2.88 in 2027.

The EIA also cited the US weather agency NOAA, whose winter outlook reflects a strengthening El Niño and favours above-normal temperatures across the northern United States from December to February. The agency added a clear caveat: severe cold snaps in January or February could still lift demand above its forecast and cause short price spikes.

Why the futures curve matters

The futures market already prices a winter hump. Schneider Electric's settlement table for 11 November shows January 2027 at $3.645, February at $3.235 and March at $2.526. That shape means traders expect the coldest weeks to be the tightest, then a sharp drop once spring arrives. Our guide to contango and backwardation explains how to read curves like this.

The gap between those winter contracts and the EIA's $2.87 seasonal average is notable. It suggests either that the market is paying for weather insurance, or that the agency's mild-winter assumption will be tested. Neither side is guaranteed to be right: the EIA forecast was completed on 5 November, and weather models change daily.

What comes next

Storage data on Friday. The EIA's weekly storage report, covering the week to 6 November, moves to Friday 13 November at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time (11:30 p.m. Macau time) because of the Veterans Day holiday.
Weather model updates, especially for late November and early December.
LNG feedgas, since record export demand is one of the few forces that can absorb rising output.
Crude and heating oil, which share some of the same weather and inflation drivers. See WTI crude and heating oil.

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Sources

Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.

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