Bitcoin · On-chain analysis

Bitcoin slips under the price recent buyers paid as stablecoin supply shrinks at the fastest pace since 2022 and ETF outflows run a fourth day

By VoxTradePro Desk · Published 12 Nov 2026, 08:15 UTC+8 · 4 min read

Bitcoin trades near $74,000, below the $75.6K short-term holder cost basis, as stablecoins shrink $14.2B in 30 days and spot ETFs log a fourth day of outflows.

Bitcoin has spent the week stuck in a narrow band just under $74,000, and new on-chain data helps explain why rallies keep running out of steam. According to CoinMarketCap figures cited by Chosun Biz, bitcoin traded at $73,798 at 08:40 Seoul time on 12 November, up only 0.16% over 24 hours. Two research firms, Glassnode and CryptoQuant, published reports on 11 November that point in the same direction: money is leaving the crypto market faster than it is arriving.

Recent buyers are now underwater

Glassnode's weekly report, titled "Running on Empty", focuses on the short-term holder cost basis. This is the average price paid by investors who bought within the last 155 days, and it is currently about $75,600. With bitcoin below that level, the typical recent buyer is sitting on a paper loss.

The report says only about 35% of short-term holder coins are in profit today, against nearly all of them at the September high. Roughly two thirds of these coins were bought between August and October at prices reaching up to $83,600. Glassnode warns that many of those holders may sell into any bounce just to get their money back, which can cap rallies. Below the market, the only dense cluster of recent buying sits between $62,000 and $66,000, around the August low.

CryptoQuant data reported by Decrypt shows this pressure in real time. In a single 24-hour window, about 47,300 BTC reached exchanges from short-term holders at a loss, compared with only about 1,100 BTC sent at a profit. At around $74,000 per coin, the combined flow was worth roughly $3.6 billion. A transfer to an exchange is not the same as a sale, but it is often the first step towards one.

The cash side of the market is shrinking

Stablecoins act as the ready cash of crypto: traders park dollars in them before buying coins. Glassnode found that total stablecoin supply fell by $14.2 billion over the 30 days to 9 November, the fastest contraction since June 2022. Decrypt notes that total supply now sits just under $280 billion. When holders redeem stablecoins for ordinary dollars, that cash is no longer available to buy bitcoin.

US demand also looks soft. Glassnode reported about $1.6 billion of net outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs over 20 trading sessions, and said bitcoin has been trading at a discount on Coinbase, a common gauge of American buying interest. Chosun Biz, citing ETF flow data, said the funds lost a further $95 million on 11 November, the fourth straight day of net outflows.

Interest rates are part of the backdrop. After a hotter-than-expected US inflation report on 10 November, Chosun Biz said fed funds futures put the probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve hike at the 8–9 December meeting at 87.3%. Higher rates tend to make non-yielding assets such as bitcoin less attractive to some investors.

Not all signals are negative

Glassnode also lists several points that cut the other way:

Most long leverage near the current price has already been flushed out, so there is less fuel for a forced-selling cascade nearby.
Buy orders outweigh sell orders in the order book.
Wallets holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC have started accumulating again.
The September peak was the first higher high since the 2025 all-time high, and Glassnode says that broader trend holds as long as price stays above the June low of $58,500.

The firm also flags the largest cluster of potential long liquidations on its six-month map between $59,500 and $62,600, well below the current price.

Levels traders are watching

Based on the Glassnode report, three levels stand out:

$75,600, the short-term holder cost basis. Getting back above it would put the average recent buyer back in profit.
$77,500, the "True Market Mean". Glassnode says a reclaim would return about half of short-term holder coins to profit.
$62,000–$66,000, the dense buying zone from August, the next area where recent holders have a cost base.

Signs of a change in mood would include stablecoin supply growing again, ETF flows turning positive and the Coinbase discount closing.

How to follow it

You can track the live bitcoin price and Ethereum on our market pages, check sentiment with the fear and greed index and see leveraged positioning on the crypto liquidation heatmap. Our bitcoin price forecast sets out longer-term scenarios. For background on reading levels like these, see support, resistance and pivot points and crypto market basics.

Markets like this can swing several percent in a day. The position size calculator and risk management basics guide can help you keep risk small, and the paper trading simulator lets you practise without real money.

Sources

Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.

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