Gold · Daily move

Gold climbs back above $4,100 as falling oil and a softer dollar outweigh rising odds of a December Fed hike

By VoxTradePro Desk · Published 10 Nov 2026, 08:25 UTC+8 · 3 min read

Spot gold rose about 1.7% on Monday to around $4,141 as Brent sank 5.85% and the dollar eased, even as December Fed hike odds climbed to about 84%.

Gold started the week on the front foot. Spot bullion rose about 1.7% to $4,141.14 an ounce on Monday 9 November, according to Investing.com, recovering the ground it lost after Friday's strong US jobs report. CNBC, citing Reuters, put December gold futures at a $4,114.50 settlement, up 1%, with spot trading later in the session above $4,129.

What makes the move notable is the backdrop. Traders are pricing a higher chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in December, which usually works against a metal that pays no yield. Gold rose anyway.

Oil did the heavy lifting

The main driver was the energy market. After President Donald Trump said on Sunday that fresh strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" while talks progress, crude kept falling. Reuters reported that Brent settled $5.75 (5.85%) lower at $92.57 a barrel and WTI settled $3.98 (4.38%) lower at $86.85, with both sliding further after the settlement.

Cheaper oil matters for gold through inflation expectations. Energy costs have been one of the biggest forces keeping US inflation elevated since the conflict began in late February. When crude falls this fast, markets start to expect less pressure on consumer prices over the coming months. That, in turn, softens the case for very aggressive tightening and supports assets that suffer most from high real rates.

The US dollar also gave way. DTN reported that the US Dollar Index fell 0.63% to 101.535, while FXStreet quoted it near 101.81 during its session update. A weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for buyers paying in euros, yen or rupees, which tends to lift demand at the margin.

The Fed side of the ledger

The headwind has not gone away. Friday's October payrolls report showed 165,000 jobs added against a consensus of about 65,000, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, Investing.com reported. CNBC said the CME FedWatch tool showed an 84.5% chance of a December rate hike on Monday, and FXStreet noted the US 10-year Treasury yield edged up to about 4.889%.

In other words, bond markets and the gold market are reading the same news differently. Bonds are focused on a tight labour market. Gold is focused on oil, the dollar and steady official demand.

Central banks still buying

That official demand is the third support. FXStreet, citing the World Gold Council, said the People's Bank of China added about 25.8 tonnes of gold to its reserves in October, its largest monthly purchase in three years. Central bank buying is slow-moving and less sensitive to day-to-day rate expectations, so it can act as a floor when speculative money pulls back.

Silver joined the rally on Monday as well. If you follow the relationship between the two metals, our gold-silver ratio guide explains how traders use it.

Levels and what comes next

On the chart, FXStreet pointed to last Thursday's high near $4,146 as the first hurdle, with the 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages clustered around $4,191 to $4,201. On the downside it flagged $4,100 and $4,000, then the 4 November low near $3,919 and the 30 October year-to-date low near $3,879. Our guide to support, resistance and pivot points covers how such levels are drawn.

The next test is the October US consumer price index, due Tuesday, followed by producer prices on Friday. We explained why this CPI report is unusual in our October CPI preview. A hot core reading could revive the dollar and pressure gold, while a soft one would add to Monday's message from the oil market. Either way, volatility around the release is likely, so position sizing and risk management matter more than usual.

You can follow the live gold price and the gold trading basics guide on VoxTradePro.

Sources

Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.

Related markets: Gold Silver Brent Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil