Oil · Weekly open

Oil slips at the weekly open as Trump downplays new Iran strikes, despite weekend hits on Aramco, Khor Mor and Hormuz shipping

By VoxTradePro Desk · Published 9 Nov 2026, 08:15 UTC+8 · 3 min read

Brent fell about 0.6% at Monday's open after Trump called new Iran strikes unlikely, even as attacks hit Saudi, Iraqi and Gulf shipping targets.

Crude opened the new trading week slightly lower, a reaction that looks muted given how much happened over the weekend. Reuters reported that Brent was down 64 cents (0.64%) at $97.67 a barrel in early Monday trade, with WTI 35 cents (0.40%) lower at $90.51. Brent briefly gave up more than $1.

The trigger for the dip was political rather than physical. In a CNN phone interview reported by Reuters on Sunday 8 November, US President Donald Trump said new attacks on Iran were "highly unlikely" to be needed as long as talks to end the conflict made progress, adding that it depended on whether Tehran signed "a very strong agreement". He had hinted at renewed strikes after last week's midterm elections, but Reuters said there had been no sign of a large-scale operation.

A weekend of hits on energy targets

The calm price action sits against a long list of incidents between Saturday and Sunday:

• Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guards navy said two oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines while using what it called an "unauthorized route" through the strait, and the Fars agency later reported a third tanker fire, according to Reuters. Reuters said it could not confirm the reported strikes.
• Gulf of Oman. US Central Command said a US aircraft fired at the stern of the St. Kitts-flagged cargo ship M/V Huda on 7 November after its crew repeatedly tried to breach the US naval blockade of Iran following a visit to an Iranian port.
• Riyadh. Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said an Aramco administrative building in the capital suffered limited damage from falling debris after an attempted attack on Sunday, with no injuries. Arab News cited the Saudi-led coalition as saying it intercepted three missiles aimed at Riyadh and one toward the south. AFP reported that Yemen's Houthis claimed the strike and also listed Riyadh airport, Aramco storage tanks and Abqaiq among their targets.
• Northern Iraq. Reuters, citing sources, said production stopped at the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region after a drone hit an LPG storage tank on Sunday, and the regional electricity ministry said about 2.8 gigawatts of generating capacity was lost. Rudaw said it was the first strike on the field in nearly four months. No group claimed responsibility.

Why prices barely moved

Two things help explain the small reaction. First, the market has spent a week moving away from a war premium. EnergyNow's matching-contract tally put Friday's WTI settlement at $90.83, down about 12.8% on the week, and Brent at $98.32, down about 13.3%, as traders priced a stronger chance of US-Iran diplomacy after the midterms. We covered that reset in our commodities weekly outlook. A comment from Washington that lowers the odds of new US strikes pushes in the same direction.

Second, most of the weekend damage did not obviously remove crude barrels. The Riyadh building is an office, Saudi officials described the damage as limited, and Khor Mor is a gas and LPG asset that mainly feeds local power plants. That makes it a regional electricity and fuel problem first, and a global natural gas story only at the margin. The tanker reports matter more for oil, but details were unconfirmed early on Monday.

What could change the picture

The gap between diplomacy headlines and attacks on the ground is the main risk to watch. A few markers this week:

1. Talks. Reuters reported that Qatar, a mediator, denied on Saturday that the US and Iran had failed to reach a deal. Any firm schedule or breakdown would likely matter more for Brent than another single incident.
2. Hormuz traffic. Confirmed damage to loaded tankers, or insurers pulling cover, would test the view that the physical risk is fading.
3. Saudi infrastructure. The Houthi claims named storage and processing sites, not just offices. Verified damage there would be a different kind of headline.
4. Curve shape. Watch whether near-month contracts strengthen against later months. Our guide to contango and backwardation explains why that spread often moves before the outright price.

For background on the usual drivers, see what moves oil prices, and for a longer-range view, our crude oil price forecast page. Price swings of a dollar or more within a session are common in this setup, so position sizing and basic risk management matter more than usual.

Sources

• Reuters via Euronext, Oil falls on open as Trump says fresh Iran attacks 'unlikely'; Brent −64 cents (−0.64%) to $97.67, WTI −35 cents (−0.40%) to $90.51, Brent briefly down more than $1, 9 November 2026
• Reuters, Trump says he is highly unlikely to order Iran strikes if talks progress; IRGC says two tankers hit mines, third tanker fire, US disables vessel in Gulf of Oman, Aramco building damaged, 8 November 2026
• U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces disable cargo vessel attempting to violate naval blockade (M/V Huda), 7 November 2026
• Arab News, Aramco building in Riyadh targeted, Saudi energy ministry says; coalition says three missiles toward Riyadh and one toward the south intercepted, 8 November 2026
• AFP, Yemen's Houthis claim attack on Riyadh financial district, Aramco skyscraper damaged; Houthis list Riyadh airport, Aramco storage tanks and Abqaiq among targets, 8 November 2026
• Reuters via Investing.com, Production suspended at Iraq's Khor Mor gas field after drone attack; about 2.8 GW of Kurdistan power generation lost, 8 November 2026
• Rudaw, Gas production halted in Khor Mor after strike hits gas storage unit; first attack after nearly four months, 8 November 2026
• EnergyNow, Friday oil price report; WTI settled $90.83 (−12.76% week), Brent $98.32 (−13.32% week on matching contracts), 6 November 2026

Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.

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