Natural gas · Daily move
US natural gas jumps 7.3% to $3.218, its biggest daily gain since September, as cooler forecasts force record short sellers to buy back
Henry Hub December futures settled up 7.34% at $3.218 on Monday as cooler weather models met a record fund short position, while Europe's TTF fell again.
US natural gas had its strongest day in more than six weeks on Monday 9 November. According to Dow Jones data carried by Morningstar, the front-month December Henry Hub contract settled 22 cents (7.34%) higher at $3.218 per million British thermal units. That was the largest one-day gain since 24 September and the highest settlement since 15 October.
It was a sharp contrast with the rest of the energy complex. On the same day Brent and WTI crude fell between 4% and 6% on hopes of a US-Iran deal, while gas was the only major energy contract to rise.
A crowded trade meets a cooler forecast
The weather change behind the move was modest. Investing.com reported that Commodity Weather Group now expects roughly normal temperatures across the eastern third of the US through 18 November, before warmer-than-normal conditions return. Criterion Research estimated the cooler outlook adds only 20 to 30 Bcf of demand over two weeks compared with Friday's forecasts.
On its own, that is small. The reason it moved prices so much is positioning. Hedge funds had spent October betting heavily that a strong El Niño would bring a very mild US winter. TradingNEWS, citing CFTC data, said short-only positions across benchmark Henry Hub contracts reached 625,150 in the week to 27 October, the largest since the data series began in 2013, and Investing.com said the short position set another record the following week.
When nearly everyone is positioned the same way, even a small surprise can force many traders to buy back contracts at once. That is what a short squeeze looks like, and it can push prices well beyond what the fundamental news alone would justify. Energy Intelligence quoted Gelber & Associates saying short covering was contributing to the advance above $3.
Exports and supply in the background
Demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants is also firm. TradingNEWS reported that gas flowing to US LNG terminals hit a record 20.4 Bcf per day on Monday. On the supply side, Investing.com said domestic output had slipped to around 109.5 Bcf per day, the lowest since January, as some producers curtailed wells while regional prices sat near very low levels.
Those curtailments cut both ways. Analysts quoted by Investing.com warned that producers can bring held-back gas online quickly if prices rise, which would cap any rally.
Storage is still comfortable
Inventories are not tight. The latest US Energy Information Administration data, covering the week to 30 October, showed a 77 Bcf injection, taking working gas to 3,801 Bcf. That leaves stocks 54 Bcf above the five-year average but 109 Bcf below a year earlier. The next weekly storage report is due on Friday 13 November, a day later than the usual Thursday slot.
For context, Morningstar's data show the front month is still down about 12.7% year to date and roughly 57% below its 2026 high of $7.46 set in January.
Europe moved the other way
Across the Atlantic, the Dutch TTF benchmark fell 3.83% to €82.31 per megawatt-hour on Monday, according to Investing.com historical data, extending a slide from above €100 in late October as hopes for Middle East de-escalation grew.
What to watch
The coming days hinge on weather model updates, Friday's storage report and whether funds rebuild their short bets. If forecasts swing back to record warmth, much of Monday's gain could fade; if colder air arrives, the large remaining short position could amplify the move. Moves of 7% in a day show why gas is one of the most volatile commodities, and why risk management is essential. Our guides on contango and backwardation and futures, spot and CFDs explain how gas contracts are priced across months.
Read next
- The EIA trims its winter Henry Hub forecast 16% to $2.87 just as December futures hit a six-week high, setting up a test of weather versus supplyAnalysis
- Brent briefly breaks below $90 for the first time since August as Iran de-escalation hopes grow and an API survey points to a surprise US crude buildAnalysis
- Commodities 101: What They Are and How Their Markets WorkGuide
- Contango vs Backwardation: Reading the Futures CurveGuide
Free tools: Position size calculator · Practise risk-free with paper trading
Sources
- Dow Jones via Morningstar, Front Month Nymex Natural Gas Rose 7.34% to Settle at $3.2180 — Data Talk; biggest one-day gain since 24 Sep, highest settle since 15 Oct, 52-week range, year-to-date −12.70%, 9 November 2026
- Investing.com, Natural gas surges 8% as record short position unwinds on cooler forecasts; Commodity Weather Group and Criterion Research views, output ~109.5 Bcf/d, 9 November 2026
- TradingNEWS, Natural Gas Futures Forecast: Gas rips on short squeeze; CFTC short-only positions 625,150 in week to 27 Oct, LNG feedgas record 20.4 Bcf/d, 9 November 2026
- Energy Intelligence, Market Watch: Nymex surges above $3 in short-covering rally; Gelber & Associates comment, 9 November 2026
- PTM Trading (EIA data), Natural Gas +77 Bcf vs +81 est; stocks 3,801 Bcf, 54 Bcf above five-year average, 109 Bcf below last year, next report 13 November, 5 November 2026
- Investing.com, Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures historical data; 9 November settle €82.31/MWh (−3.83%), 9 November 2026
Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.
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