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Bitcoin 200 week moving average: BTC slips under the $68K line that marked past cycle lows. What the weekly close can tell traders
Bitcoin is trading just under its 200 week moving average near $68,000. What the line is, how it behaved in past cycles and what to watch at the weekly close.
Searches for the Bitcoin 200 week moving average have jumped on Google this week for a clear reason: Bitcoin is trading right on it. On 13 November BTC fell to about $67,500, just under a 200-week simple moving average of $67,993, the first test of the line since 19 August, Cointelegraph reported.
On Saturday (14 November, 12:51 Macau time) Bitcoin was near $67,093, down about 2.3% in 24 hours, per CoinGecko. That is still below the line, so this weekend's weekly close is the number many traders are waiting for.
Key takeaways
- The 200-week moving average (200WMA) is the average of Bitcoin's last 200 weekly closes, almost four years of price.
- It sits near $67,760 to $67,993 depending on the data source (Crypto Economy, Cointelegraph).
- Only 8.0% of weekly closes since 2014 have been below it, according to Crypto Economy.
- A daily dip under the line is not the same as a weekly close under it. The weekly close is the signal most analysts quote.
What is the Bitcoin 200 week moving average?
Take the closing price of each of the last 200 weeks, add them up and divide by 200. Covering almost a full four-year cycle, the line moves slowly and filters out noise, so many traders treat it as Bitcoin's long-term floor.
Why do sources show different numbers? Crypto Economy uses the last completed weekly close (8 November, $67,760), while Cointelegraph's TradingView figure and Maketo ($67,991) include the current week. Treat it as a zone around $68,000, not one exact price. Our technical indicators guide explains how moving averages work, and the Bitcoin cycle indicators tool tracks the 200WMA next to the Mayer Multiple.
How Bitcoin behaved at the line before
History gives both a hopeful and a warning case:
| Period | What happened at the 200WMA | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 and 2020 | Touches marked bear-market bottoms | Bitcoin Insider (FxPro) |
| June 2022 | A long break below, then a crypto winter | Bitcoin Insider (FxPro) |
| 20 Nov 2022 | Price was 32.2% under the line, the deepest gap on record | Maketo |
| Mar to Oct 2023 | Price chopped around the line for months | Cointelegraph |
| Late Jun to mid-Aug 2026 | Three weekly closes below, each won back within two weeks | CoinMarketCap |
The lesson: long-term buyers have often shown up at the line, but it is not a wall. In 2022 it broke for months.
Why Bitcoin is testing it now
The test comes after a heavy week. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $1.72 billion over six straight sessions through Thursday, CoinMarketCap reported, and Glassnode said US demand has been quiet since September. Total crypto market value fell 5.3% in 24 hours to $2.32 trillion on 13 November and a popular sentiment index dropped to 20, "extreme fear", per FxPro on Bitcoin Insider.
Bitcoin is also below its 200-day average of $73,092, giving a Mayer Multiple of 0.94 (Crypto Economy). We looked at the selling in why Bitcoin dropped below $70K.
The levels traders are watching
- About $68,000: a weekly close above it keeps the long-term trend intact by Bitfinex's measure (CoinMarketCap).
- Weekly RSI 41.5: Material Indicators' Keith Alan said losing it "opens the door" to the $57,700 cycle low (Cointelegraph).
- About $75,400: the average cost of recent buyers, where Bitfinex expects selling on any bounce (CoinMarketCap).
Bitcoin's weekly candle closes at 00:00 UTC on Monday, which is 08:00 Monday, Macau time.
A practical way to use the 200WMA
Use the line as a decision point, not a prediction. A simple paper-trading plan:
- Wait for the weekly close. Intraday wicks below the line happen often; the 2026 summer closes below it reversed within two weeks.
- Write both scenarios first. "Close above $68,000: the summer pattern may repeat. Close below and weekly RSI under 41.5: lower supports such as $57,700 come into play."
- Size from the stop. On a $10,000 paper account risking 1% ($100), a test entry at $68,000 with a stop at $65,000 risks $3,000 per BTC, so the size is about 0.033 BTC (roughly $2,270), not the whole balance. See our position sizing guide.
Bottom line
The Bitcoin 200 week moving average is trending because BTC is testing it for the first time since August. The weekly close around $68,000 is the clearest signal to watch; the line has marked past bottoms, but it failed in 2022. Follow the live Bitcoin price and practise both scenarios with zero real money on our paper trading platform.
Read next
- Why is XRP dropping? XRP slips below $1 for the first time since August, and the levels traders are now watchingAnalysis
- Why is Bitcoin dropping? Five forces that pushed BTC below $70,000 on 13 November, and what traders can learn from itAnalysis
- Technical Indicators Explained: Moving Averages, RSI and MACDGuide
- Support, Resistance and Pivot Points: Finding Key LevelsGuide
Free tools: Paper trading simulator · Crypto converter · Liquidation calculator · Position size calculator
Sources
- CoinGecko, Bitcoin price (BTC $67,093, 24h -2.3%), 14 November 2026 12:51 Macau time
- Cointelegraph, Bitcoin returns to 200-week trend line as analyst sees risk of $57.7K next (200-week SMA $67,993; first test since 19 Aug; weekly RSI 41.5; cycle low $57,700), 13 November 2026
- CoinMarketCap Academy, Bitcoin Price Falls to 200-Week Average as US Demand Fades (low $67,653; ETF outflows about $1.72B over six sessions; Bitfinex weekly close test near $68,000; three weekly closes below the line June-August; recent buyers' cost about $75,400), 13 November 2026
- Crypto Economy, Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average Today (average $67,760 at the 8 Nov weekly close; 8.0% of weekly closes since 2014 below it; 200-day average $73,092; Mayer Multiple 0.94), data to 13 November 2026
- Maketo, 200-Week Moving Average: Is Bitcoin Near Its Floor? (average $67,991 on 13 Nov 2026; deepest gap -32.2% on 20 Nov 2022), updated 14 November 2026
- Bitcoin Insider (FxPro), Bitcoin has fallen back to the crucial 200-week MA (crypto market cap $2.32T, sentiment index 20; 2018 and 2020 touches marked bear-market bottoms; June 2022 break), 13 November 2026
Not financial advice. This article is for general information and education only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Prices move quickly and figures quoted may already be out of date; markets involve risk, including the loss of capital. See our disclaimer.